Wind Capability

I have been skeptical of the claims that covering South Dakota with wind turbines could provide electricity for the entire country. But it checks out by adapting the analysis of MacKay (p.265).

MacKay envisions a square array of windmills spaced 5d apart (d = blade length), and finds that they provide power of 2.2 W/m^2, independent of d (large d = wider spacing and the effects cancel out).

A hexagonal array can be more densely packed (area ratio = 16.2/25). Also I took the typical wind speed in SD as 8 m/s (MacKay use 6 m/s). As a result, MacKay's power of 2.2 W/m^2 becomes 8 W/m^2. Since the area of SD is 2*10^11 m^2, the total wind power becomes 1600 GW. Assuming a wind-turbine capacity factor of about 1/3, the electrical energy becomes 4.2*10^12 kWH (4,200 TWh), which is about annual US usage.

Elliot (MacKay, p,234) comes up with the same number when estimating the practical potential of wind power. He says that we could carve a California-size chunk out of the wind states without too much disruption.

Ohio Coal

Ohio annual coal production peaked at around 50 million tons in 1970, when the first clean air act was passed. It has steadily declined since to about 25 million tons. A century ago there were about 50,000 miners compared to about 2,500 today.

ODNR Geofacts No. 14 (2005)

Ohio Electric Data

Calculated from USDOE-EERE and Census Bureau data:

Residential electrical usage on Ohio = 13,000 kWh annually per household

Average monthly household bill = c. $108

Annual residential utility income = $B4.36

Total utility income = $B13.55

Ohio rates average about 4.7% below the national average.

Switchgrass Potential

Switchgrass gives 14.4*10^6 BTU/Ton

Chariton used 15,000 Tons to produce 19*10^6 kWh -> 11.4*10^6 BTU/kWh

If 3413 BTU = 1 kWh, Chariton was 30% efficient.

Ohio produces 10.3*10^Tons annually -> 13*10^9 kWh

We only use 420 Tons -> 3% of potential

If Ohio electricity usage is flat at 155*10^9 kwh/yr, and SB221 requires 1/8 of electricity from renewables, biomass could produce 2/3 of what is required.

(also see 07/23/09)

Electricity Statistics -2. Renewable Percentages

Electricity Capacity and Consumption

Percentages for U.S. and Ohio


Technology, U.S., Ohio

Biomass, 12, 49
Geothermal, 9, *
Hydroelectric, 69, 48
Solar, 0.2, *
Wind, 10, 2

* = Too small to report

All data from EIA databases for 2007 (latest as of 08/01/09)

Electricity Statistics -1.Capacity and Production

Electricity Capacity and Consumption, U.S. and Ohio

Total Capacity, 10^3 MW,

U.S. = 995
Ohio = 33.8 (3.4 % of U.S. total, Rank among states = 8)

Renewable Capacity, 10^3 MW

U.S. = 108 (10.9 % of U.S. total)
Ohio = 0.213 (0.6 % of Ohio total, 0.2 % of U.S. Renewables, rank = 47)

Total Generation, 10^6 MWh

U.S. = 4,157
Ohio = 155 (3.7 % of U.S. total, Rank = 6)

Renewable Generation, 10^6 MWh

U.S. = 353 (8.5 % of U.S. total)
Ohio = 0.846 ( 0.6 % of Ohio total, 0.2 % of U.S. Renewables, Rank = 45)

All data from EIA databases for 2007 (latest as of 08/01/09)

Switchgrass

The Chariton Valley (IA) Project generated electricity from switchgrass for three months in 2006. It resulted in an output of 1.25MWh/Dry-Ton. A typical Ohio home uses about 1 Mwh/month. So a year’s electricity for a home could be supplied from about ten tons, which would cost around $200-300 for fuel. A home using 1 Mwh/month would have a $100 electricity bill (this seems high).

I posted a query about home biomass generators on Yahoo! Answers and got this anonymous reply:

“I can't give you a direct answer, but I'm going to venture that operating such a system would be a full time job. It would consist of either a gasifier or wood burner system, then some sort of generator.

“A gasifier system would likely be simpler on the downstream end, syn-gas would be fed to a retro-fit ICE and used to direct drive a generator. A burner system would require a boiler and a let down turbine, condensate handling system, etc etc. It'd be a trade off, operating the wood-burner would be easy, the boiler and turbine pretty complicated, where in the other scenario, the gasifier would be difficult to operate whereas the ICE would be very simple. In one system the front end is easy, the back end difficult, in the other system, the opposite.

“Supplying enough biomass to support any level of generation would be a chore in itself also. You're not going to get enough grass clippings or yard waste for free to run your house. Assuming GREAT efficiency, you'd be looking at burning about a pound of bone dry wood every hour to power the average American household. Feeding 25lbs per day doesn't seem like much, but you'd have to feed it continuously, all day every day. You'll probably pay around $80-100/ton for biomass supply (more with shipping), which will be at least 20% moisture. So you'll at a MINIMUM be spending $600 per year on feedstock, I'd guess around half what you're paying for electricity now. Factor in the compounding efficiencies of EITHER system so you'll end up buying around TWICE the mass of wet biomass as your actual energy load requires, so your $600 becomes $1200, bringing you pretty close to on par with your current bills, PLUS the additional cost of paying for the equipment up front, then the maintenance and operational costs of the system.

“Bottom line, it's not hugely economical for home use.
“Source(s):
“I'm a renewable energy engineer.”

I’m not convinced that his cost is right, but the message is that the technology for a home system is not here yet.

Fuel Costs for Cars

In Sept. 2007, Popular Mechanics estimated the fuel costs to go from coast to coast using various fuels. The results for the leading contenders were:

Petrol = $212.70 ($2.34/gal - about today's price)
E85 = 425
Electricity = 60

Compressed natural gas, though not a contender for cars, cost $110. Fuel cell, which seems to have lost its glow, was exorbitant = $804.

Electricity Supplied

To calculate the number of homes powered by one MW of capacity, I used the following formula:

E = 730fP ----- (1)

where E is electricity provided (MWh) in a 730-hour month, f fraction of rated power actually delivered, and P is rated power (MW). Assuming the average home in Ohio uses 1 MWh = 1,000 kWh per month, Eq. (1) becomes:

H = 730fP ----- (2)

where H is the number of homes supplied.

I used the data of www.nrel.gov/analysis/costs.html
for my estimates.


----------------------------------------------- Construction-- Construction
Power Source ------------------ f --- H/P---- Cost, $/kW --- Cost, $/Home

Coal ----------------------------- 0.86 - 630 -------- 2800 -- 4450
Geothermal --------------------- 0.84 - 615 -------- 3200 -- 5200
Natural Gas (Combined Cycle) -- 0.80 - 585 -------- 3100 -- 5300
Wind ---------------------------- 0.39 - 285 -------- 1700 -- 5965
Biomass ------------------------- 0.69 - 505 -------- 3200 -- 6335
Hydro --------------------------- 0.45 - 330 -------- 2300 -- 6970
Nuclear ------------------------- 0.90 - 655 -------- 4900 -- 7480
Solar Thermal ------------------- 0.32 - 235 -------- 4600 -- 19,570
Solar PV ------------------------- 0.20 - 145 -------- 5600 -- 38,620


where f = capacity factor
H/P = Homes per MW

Tax Abatement Resolution

LWVO League Leaders Update
May 27 2009
ADVOCACY & EDUCATION
**NEW** Action Resolution on Energy Calls for Local League Action.
Resolving the energy crisis requires citizen participation to demonstrate to elected officials that there is a strong constituency for conservation. Otherwise government officials may focus only on providing the incentives required to ensure that the developer selects their jurisdiction without regard to energy conservation requirements, many of which may be cost effective. It is time that citizens act together to insure that energy conservation becomes an integral part of civic planning and urge local community officials to impose a modest and cost-effective restraint on incentives.
The Delegates to the 2009 State convention passed action resolution # 3 to encourage local Leagues to advocate in their communities for specific energy-conservation requirements to be incorporated into financial incentives offered by all state and local government entities. Local Leagues seeking assistance in this goal should contact LWVO Energy Specialist Al Rosenfield at alandpeg@alum.mit.edu . You can also view each of the Action Resolutions passed at the Convention on the LWVO website at www.lwvohio.org.
-----------------------------------------------------
LWVO Action Resolution # 3 - Energy Conservation

Lobby Corps proposing the resolution: Al Rosenfield, LWVO Alternative Energy Specialist

Specific League Position(s) the resolution supports: National positions -- “actions by appropriate levels of government to encourage.... energy conservation through...financial incentives...and mandatory standards”.

Background Information: Resolving the energy crisis requires citizen participation to demonstrate to elected officials that there is a strong constituency for conservation. Otherwise government officials may focus only on providing the incentives required to ensure that the developer selects their jurisdiction without regard to energy conservation requirements, many of which may be cost effective. It is time that citizens act together to insure that energy conservation becomes an integral part of civic planning. The action proposed in this resolution seeks to advance this goal by imposing a modest and cost-effective restraint on incentives.

Body of Resolution :

Whereas, the League of Women Voters supports “action by appropriate levels of government to encourage … energy conservation through … financial incentives … and mandatory standards”;

Whereas, State Government and municipalities in Ohio have been awarding incentives, such as tax abatements and Tax Increment Funding, to private concerns, often without regard to energy conservation; and

Whereas, energy-conservation technology for buildings has become inexpensive and widespread, be it therefore

Resolved, that the League of Women Voters of Ohio meeting in Dublin, Ohio in State Convention on May 2, 2009, encourage local Leagues to advocate in their communities for specific energy-conservation requirements to be incorporated into financial incentives offered by all state and local government entities.

National Electricity Predictions

The Energy Information Administration of DOE collects data and makes predictions. Here are some recent results:

Percentage of Electricity Production:

2008, 2030

Coal 49,47
Natural Gas 21, 20
Nulcear 20 18,
Renewables 8, 14

The percentage of renewables breaks down as follows approx.)

Wind 1, 2.5
Biomass 1, 4.5
Hydro 6, 7
Solar tiny, tiny

Basically a slow decline in traditional sources anda rapid rise in renewables. However, they predict that toal usage will rise from 16 to 36 %. In other words, we lose badly to global warming.

Ohio Electricity Goals

Ohio now uses about 90% coal, 10% nuclear, and <1% renewables. The goal for 2024 from 127-SB221 is 12.5% renewables and 12.5% 'advanced', which means coal, e.g. sequestration. So we will be left with over 3/4 coal assuming the two operating nuclear plants are still on line.(New nuclear counts as 'advanced', but there are no plans for an additional plant in Ohio).

Assuming that we hold down consumption, we will need to build about 4 million kW of capacity, costing at least $10 billion, assuming >$2,500/kW construction costs.

Solar Goals for Ohio

Ohio now has 33.8 GW of electric power. 127-SB221 specifies 0.06% solar by the end of 2012. This amounts to about 20 MW of solar. The minimum goal for solar in HB113 is 1000 schools with 50 kW = 50MW. So the bill requires 2.5X the goal for 2012. Actually, it would satisfy the 2015 goal for solar (50 MW = 0.15% of total). The ultimate solar goal is 0.5% = 169 MW by the end of 2024.

Wind Economics

I have tried to make some estimates of the costs of wind power.

1. To make Ohio entirely dependent on wind, would require adding 50-60 GW to replace the current 34 GW capacity, provided about 20-30 GW of conventional (probably gas) is used as a supplement when the wind isn't blowing. Assuming $2/W construction costs for both technologies, we get $140-180 billion.

2. Since each MW has about $2 million construction cost, a 2MW tower (plus gas supplement) would cost maybe $5-6 million.

3. Illinois has roughly the same population as Ohio. It has 915 MW wind making 1.06 percent of its electricity. Adjusting for the population difference, Ohio would require almost 400 towers to get one percent.

Solar Costs

On 31 March 2009, the Columbus Dispatch printed an article by Mary Beth Lane extolling solar power. Their prime example was a US Forestry Service project to provide solar panels to the Wayne National Forest HQ. Cost = $398,000; estimated electricity savings = $10,000 - $ 16,000 annually. This amounts to a 10 to 40 year payback time. Of course, the Forestry Service gets the money via an appropriation, so that they are not paying interest. But it's a cost that adds to the National debt, so that the interest cost does not affect the Forestry Service.

More bothersome is the statement by the head of Green Energy Ohio (GEO) that solar panels pay for themselves in ten years. This does not jibe with the example above or with Ann's experience. Perhaps there is a large subsidy implied in the GEO which I haven't accounted for.

Conservation Saves Money and Energy

In the New York Times for March 29, Thomas L. Friedman cited Hal Harvey of 'Climate Works'. Harvey's five proven policies to fight climate change are:

1. energy-efficient building and appliance codes
2. better vehicle fuel-efficiency standards
3. utilities to produce 15-20% energy from renewables by 2020
4. decoupling (utilities make money by helping homeowners save energy, rather than use it)
5. carbon tax

Clearly nos. 1,2,4, and 5 are conservation. Only 3 is alternative energy. Since a conference reported in MIT Energy Weekly noted that conservation is cheaper than alternative energy, Harvey seems to be making sense.

The Pickens Plan

This past Tuesday I went to a meeting on the Pickens Plan. The original idea was to use wind to replace the cng now used for electrical generation and to free the cng to power automobiles. The plan seems to have morphed by downplaying wind. Pickens now says that we have enough natural gas to power autos until the next generation is sorted out (probably plug-ins or plug-in hybrids). Right now, the cost of a cng Honda Civic is about $9.5 K greater than a petrol-powered one according to Clean Fuels Ohio. A study by Popular Mechanics about two years ago gave cng-powered cars the equivalent of $1.10/gal., so that the cng-Honda is no bargain. It appears that cng may have an application in fleets of heavy vehicles. Mayor Coleman spoke of ordering cng garbage trucks during the meeting.

The President of AEP was also there. He talked of building high-power transmission lines near energy sources to solve the problem that both wind and sun are most potent away from major population centers.

Wind Turbine Size

Larger wind turbines are more efficient than smaller ones. I took data for small Skytstream systems (02. - 3.0 kW) and found that:

P = kD^1.7

where P is power, D is diameter, and k is a constant.

The implication is that a small home turbine is a poor investment (a letter to the Columbus Dispatch about a month ago stated that one cost him about $1/kWh, whereas we pay about 9 cents). It would appear that it would be better for several people in an area band together and build a big one. However, on Tueaday, the President of AEP said that they were not building a turbine farm on Lake Erie because it would have been 'inefficient and uneconomical.'

I located some data comparing wind to nuclear. For the Wolfe Island Plant in Ontario, the cost was about $2/W, while the expected cost of nuclear construction from Moody's is expected to be $6/W. But wind powers about 375 homes/MW, while nuclear powers 590 homes/MW (Progress Energy FL estimate). Thus the cost per home is $5,300 for wind and $10,200 for nuclear. I would guess that the cost of operation per kW is similar for the two technologies, but need to check this.

LED Traffic Lights

I wonder if the relative costs of replacing traffic lights is considerd in savings for LEDs. I have seen three or four men with a cherry picker replacing traffic lights in Columbus. This must cost $100 per change. With many fewer changes with LEDs, this cost is drastically reduced.

I plan to write about the barriers to achieving the energy goals in Ohio SB221:

(ORC 4928.64(B)) Utilities must provide 25% of their retail electricity supply from alternative energy resources by 2025, with specific annual benchmarks for renewable and solar energy resources:

Year Renewable(%) Solar (%)

2009 0.25 0.004
2010 0.50 0.010
2011 1.0 0.030
2012 1.5 0.060
2013 2.0 0.090
2014 2.5 0.12
2015 3.5 0.15
2016 4.5 0.18
2017 5.5 0.22
2018 6.5 0.26
2019 7.5 0.30
2020 8.5 0.34
2021 9.5 0.38
2022 10.5 0.42
2023 11.5 0.46
2024+ 12.5 0.50

At least 50% of the renewable energy requirement must be met by in-state facilities and the remaining 50% with resources that can be shown to be deliverable into the state.

(ORC 4928.66) Additionally, utilities are required to implement energy efficiency and peak demand reduction programs that achieve a cumulative energy savings of 22% by the end of 2025, and reduce peak demand by 1.0% in 2009 and 0.75% annually thereafter through 2018.

The barriers that I have identified so far are:

Cost
Public Apathy
NIMBY
Government
Technology
Geography

Green Cars

Right now there are about 400,000 hybrid cars in the USA and about the same number are equipped to use E85 Ethanol. The total fleet is over 130 million, meaning that green cars are a bit over ½ % of the total. We've got a long way to go.

Barriers to Green Energy

I'm thinking of writing an essay on the barriers:

1. Up-Front costs/Payback Time
2. Lack of Loan Funds
3. NIMBY
4. Citizen Apathy

To set the stage I will catalog the small amount of alternative energy today.

Sources of Electricity

Some statistics on sources of electricity (All data inpercent of total). Data from Energy Information Administration:

Source, U.S. (2007), Ohio (2006)

Fossil Fuels, 71.9, 88.4 Coal, liquids, natural & other gases)
Nuclear, 19.4, 10.8
Other, 8.5, 0.7 (See below)


Distribution of Renewables:


Source,U.S. (2007), Ohio (2006)
Wood, 37.3, 28.2
Waste, 16.4, x
Geothermal, 14.4, 57.1
Solar, 5.6, x
Wind, 31.2, x

x = < 0.05%

Ethanol Plants as CO2 Factories

I recently received a request from the Darke Cty. LWV for helpful information on the planned CO2 sequestration project at the local ethanol plant. It appears that this is a first (or early) attempt to do this. In thinking about it, it occurred to me that there are lots of uses for CO2. Some ethanol plants are capturing and selling CO2, which seems a better idea than gas suppliers (e.g. Linde) manufacturing the CO2 they sell. Capturing and selling must be cheaper and more profitable than pumping CO2 into the ground.