Natural Gas Consumption Trends

I have been under the impression that the consumption of natural gas has been rapidly expanding. The Energy Information Administration data do show a rise over the past fifteen years, but it is only a modest seven percent (about +1/2% per year). However, there has been significant change among the various uses. The amount of gas used to generate electricity has almost doubled, while residential, commercial, and industrial usages have all decreased. It is doubtful that these trends were caused by the recession, since they are found during the years before 2008 (start o0f the recession). Table 1 lists the data.

Table 1. Natural Gas consumption by

End Use. Data from EIA

(Tcf = Trillions of cubic feet)

END USE		Amount, Tcf
		1997	2007	2011
Total		20.8	21.3	22.3
Electricity		4.1	6.8	7.6
Total less Electricity		16.7	14.4	14.7
Residential		5.0	4.7	4.7
Commercial		3.2	3.0	3.2
Industrial		8.5	6.7	6.7

Two other causes of the decrease in consumption are possible – global warming, which cuts the demand for heating in the winter, and use of more energy efficient equipment. Data on individual usage gives some insight. Table 2 shows that the small decrease in overall consumption hides a large decrease by the average household. It is doubtful that this decrease would be largely due to efficiency gains. It appears that a side effect of climate change is a decrease in the demand for natural gas by a major market for its use.

TABLE 2. INDIVIDUAL RESIDENTIAL

NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION. Data from

AGA and U.S. Census Bureau

(Mcf = thousands of cubic feet)

Year	Individual	Number
	Residential	Households
	Use, Mcf	Millions*
1996	170.5	114.1
2006	126.5	126.4
2010	122.8	130.6
Percent Change
1996-2010	-28.0%	14.5%
*1996 data interpolation of 1995 and 200